Expert answer:Week 2: Probability

Expert answer:Discussion 1: ProbabilityTo prepare for this Discussion, imagine that you are planning a trip to Las Vegas. You are not a gambler, and other than a few friendly poker evenings at home with friends, you have little or no experience with casinos. You still wish to try some of the games available. Research gambling games on the Internet to determine which games you might try during your trip to Las Vegas.By Day 3Post a 200- to 250-word explanation of which games you would try and why. Also, explain an estimate of the chances of winning over losing at a game of your choice.Be sure to include the web links you used for your research.Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.By Day 6Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:Ask a probing question.Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.Offer and support an opinion.Make a suggestion.Expand on your colleague’s posting.Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what you learned and the insights you gained from the comments your colleagues made.Note: Refer to the Discussion Template in the Course Information area of the course navigation menu for your main post and response.Submission and Grading InformationGrading Criteria To access your rubric:Week 2 Discussion 1 RubricPost by Day 3 and Respond by Day 6To participate in this Discussion:Week 2 Discussion 1Discussion 2: Data ProjectsThe theory of probability developed from a study of various games of chance by using coins, dice, and cards. Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck are called probability experiments. This week we will use classical probability to estimate an outcome, and then test that estimate using empirical probability.Often when playing gambling games, or collecting items in cereal boxes, one wonders how long it will be before one achieves success. For example, imagine there are six different types of toys with one toy packaged at random in a cereal box. If a person wanted a certain toy, about how many boxes would that person have to buy on average before obtaining that particular toy? Of course, there is the possibility that the particular toy would be in the first box opened or that the person might never obtain the particular toy; although these would be considered rare instances.To prepare for this Discussion, simulate this same experiment using a single, six-sided die. Choose a particular number—for example, 3. Roll the die until you get your number; that’s one “try.” Make a chart and title it “Tries vs Rolls” Keep rolling until your chosen number is rolled 100 times (100 “tries”), and use your “Tries vs Rolls” chart to Keep track of the number of total rolls needed to roll the number you select 100 times. Ask your friends or family members to help and have fun with you!In your write-up, think about and answer these questions:What did you expect the average to be (from classical probability)?What accounts for the differences from what you expected?Would we get the same thing if we rolled another 100 experiments with the same die?By Day 4Post a 200- to 250-word comparison of the number of rolls you expected to reach 100 rolls of your selected number, based on the equations and information about probability in the course text, and the number of rolls you actually needed in the experiment you performed. Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.By Day 7Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:Ask a probing question.Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.Offer and support an opinion.Make a suggestion.Expand on your colleague’s posting.Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what you learned and the insights you gained from the comments your colleagues made.Note: Refer to the Discussion Template in the Course Information area of the course navigation menu for your main post and response.Submission and Grading InformationGrading Criteria To access your rubric:Week 2 Discussion 2 RubricPost by Day 4 and Respond by Day 7To participate in this Discussion:Week 2 Discussion 2Week 2 QuizWelcome to the Week 1 Quiz. The quiz is available on Day 1 and remains available throughout the course. The quiz has no time limit and may be taken multiple times.Note: Your instructor may provide further instructions for accessing the quiz in Connect Math.By Day 7Complete the quiz of this week.Submission InformationIn order to access the Connect Math quiz, visit:http://www.connectmath.comYour instructor may provide further instructions for accessing the quiz in Connect Math.Each weekly quiz is available to the student on Day 1 of the week and remains available throughout the course. The quiz may be taken as often as necessary until the desired grade of 100% is achieved.For technical support when using Connect Math, you can call 949-390-2095 or visit: http://support.connectmath.com/Week in ReviewIn this week, you learned about probability concepts and how to determine the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events by using the fundamental counting rule. In examining probability, you also explored concepts such as chance, games, and risk taking. In the next week, you will discuss normal distribution, which is defined as a continuous, symmetric, bell-shaped distribution of a variable. You will also learn how to determine whether data falls within a normal distribution, how to facilitate data analysis, and how to calculate specific data values for given percentages by using the standard normal distribution. To go to the next week:Week 3
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Week 2: Probability
Probability can be used to examine the likelihood of an event occurring. For example, what is the
chance that both teams in a football game will score points in the first 10 minutes? No one can
say for sure, so this question can be considered using probability.
This week, you will learn about probability concepts and how to determine the total number of
outcomes in a sequence of events by using the fundamental counting rule. In examining
probability, you will explore concepts such as chance, games, and risk taking. These concepts
often have direct relevance and application to decision making in both your personal and
professional life.
Learning Objectives
Students will:


Analyze concepts of probability
Identify concepts related to probability
Photo Credit: [Andrew Brookes]/[Cultura]/Getty Images
Learning Resources
Required Readings
Bluman, A. G. (2014). Elementary statistics: A step-by-step approach (9th ed.). New York, NY:
McGraw-Hill.

Chapter 4, “Probability and Counting Rules” (pp. 185–255)
McGraw-Hill. (2014). Connect Math. Retrieved from http://www.connectmath.com
Access this website for your quiz this week.
Document: Week 2 Study Notes (PDF)
The Study Notes support the course content presented in Week 2.
Optional Resources
Khan Academy. (2014). You can learn anything. Retrieved from www.khanacademy.org
University of Baltimore. (2015). Dr. Arsham’s statistics site. Retrieved from
http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/Business-stat/opre504.htm
Note: Although not required, you may consider reviewing all sections in your course text on
Minitab, Microsoft Excel, and TI-83 and 84 as optional material that may be helpful.
Discussion 1: Probability
To prepare for this Discussion, imagine that you are planning a trip to Las Vegas. You are not a
gambler, and other than a few friendly poker evenings at home with friends, you have little or no
experience with casinos. You still wish to try some of the games available. Research gambling
games on the Internet to determine which games you might try during your trip to Las Vegas.
By Day 3
Post a 200- to 250-word explanation of which games you would try and why. Also, explain an
estimate of the chances of winning over losing at a game of your choice.Be sure to include the
web links you used for your research.
Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.
By Day 6
Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:


Ask a probing question.
Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.



Offer and support an opinion.
Make a suggestion.
Expand on your colleague’s posting.
Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what
you learned and the insights you gained from the comments your colleagues made.
Note: Refer to the Discussion Template in the Course Information area of the course navigation
menu for your main post and response.
Submission and Grading Information
Grading Criteria
To access your rubric:
Week 2 Discussion 1 Rubric
Post by Day 3 and Respond by Day 6
To participate in this Discussion:
Week 2 Discussion 1
Discussion 2: Data Projects
The theory of probability developed from a study of various games of chance by using coins,
dice, and cards. Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck are
called probability experiments. This week we will use classical probability to estimate an
outcome, and then test that estimate using empirical probability.
Often when playing gambling games, or collecting items in cereal boxes, one wonders how long
it will be before one achieves success. For example, imagine there are six different types of toys
with one toy packaged at random in a cereal box. If a person wanted a certain toy, about how
many boxes would that person have to buy on average before obtaining that particular toy? Of
course, there is the possibility that the particular toy would be in the first box opened or that the
person might never obtain the particular toy; although these would be considered rare instances.
To prepare for this Discussion, simulate this same experiment using a single, six-sided die.
Choose a particular number—for example, 3. Roll the die until you get your number; that’s one
“try.” Make a chart and title it “Tries vs Rolls” Keep rolling until your chosen number is rolled
100 times (100 “tries”), and use your “Tries vs Rolls” chart to Keep track of the number of total
rolls needed to roll the number you select 100 times. Ask your friends or family members to help
and have fun with you!
In your write-up, think about and answer these questions:
1. What did you expect the average to be (from classical probability)?
2. What accounts for the differences from what you expected?
3. Would we get the same thing if we rolled another 100 experiments with the same die?
By Day 4
Post a 200- to 250-word comparison of the number of rolls you expected to reach 100 rolls of
your selected number, based on the equations and information about probability in the course
text, and the number of rolls you actually needed in the experiment you performed.
Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.
By Day 7
Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:





Ask a probing question.
Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.
Offer and support an opinion.
Make a suggestion.
Expand on your colleague’s posting.
Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what
you learned and the insights you gained from the comments your colleagues made.
Note: Refer to the Discussion Template in the Course Information area of the course navigation
menu for your main post and response.
Submission and Grading Information
Grading Criteria
To access your rubric:
Week 2 Discussion 2 Rubric
Post by Day 4 and Respond by Day 7
To participate in this Discussion:
Week 2 Discussion 2
Week 2 Quiz
Welcome to the Week 1 Quiz.
The quiz is available on Day 1 and remains available throughout the course. The quiz has no
time limit and may be taken multiple times.
Note: Your instructor may provide further instructions for accessing the quiz in Connect Math.
By Day 7
Complete the quiz of this week.
Submission Information
In order to access the Connect Math quiz, visit:
http://www.connectmath.com
Your instructor may provide further instructions for accessing the quiz in Connect Math.
Each weekly quiz is available to the student on Day 1 of the week and remains available
throughout the course. The quiz may be taken as often as necessary until the desired grade of
100% is achieved.
For technical support when using Connect Math, you can call 949-390-2095 or visit:
http://support.connectmath.com/
Week in Review
In this week, you learned about probability concepts and how to determine the total number of
outcomes in a sequence of events by using the fundamental counting rule. In examining
probability, you also explored concepts such as chance, games, and risk taking.
In the next week, you will discuss normal distribution, which is defined as a continuous,
symmetric, bell-shaped distribution of a variable. You will also learn how to determine whether
data falls within a normal distribution, how to facilitate data analysis, and how to calculate
specific data values for given percentages by using the standard normal distribution.
To go to the next week:
Week 3
Syllabus
Student Support and Calendar Information
So you have all key information available to you off-line, it is highly recommended that you
print the following items for your reference:



This Syllabus, including the Course Schedule that is linked on this page as a PDF
Course Calendar
Student Support
Photo Credit: [Caiaimage/Paul Bradbury]/[OJO+]/Getty Images
Credit Hours

5 quarter hours
Walden University assigns credit hours based on the number and type of assignments that enable
students to achieve the course learning objectives. In general, each semester credit equals about
42 hours of total student work and each quarter credit equals about 28 hours of total student
work. This time requirement represents an approximate average for undergraduate work and the
minimum expectations for graduate work. The number and kind of activities estimated to fulfill
time requirements will vary by degree level and student learning style, and by student familiarity
with the delivery method and course content.
Course Description
In this course, students examine the fundamentals of probability and descriptive and inferential
statistics. Students learn concepts of hypothesis testing, simple regression, and correlation
analysis, focusing on the application of these techniques to business decision making. Applying
these concepts to analyze hypothetical case scenarios, students learn practical ways that they can
use statistics in their daily life. Students also have the opportunity to share insight and gain new
perspectives on these topics through weekly discussions.
Course Prerequisites
MATH 1030: College Math
or
MATH 1040: College Algebra Concepts
Course Outcomes
Participants will:







Compare statistical data to determine average costs
Apply probability to analyze the occurrence of events
Apply normal distribution to determine probability
Estimate occurrences and sample size
Draw conclusions about populations based on sample information
Test the reliability of data and make predictions
Analyze business decisions and uncertainties using statistical data
To access the Alignment Chart for your course, please click on the following link:
Document: STAT 2002/STAT 2001/MGMT 3501 Alignment Chart (PDF)
Course Materials
Please visit the university bookstore via your Walden student portal to ensure you are obtaining
the correct version of any course texts and/or materials noted in the following section. When you
receive your materials, make sure that all required items are included.
Course Text
Bluman, A. G. (2014). Elementary statistics: A step-by-step approach (9th ed.). New York, NY:
McGraw-Hill.
Note: If the print edition of this book is referenced here, electronic versions also may be
available and may be acceptable for use in this course. If an electronic version is listed, no print
version is available.
Other readings (journal articles, websites, book excerpts, etc.) are assigned throughout the course
and may be found within each week.
Connect Math
The quizzes and exams in this course are conducted through Connect Math. Access to Connect
Math is included in the price of the textbook in the Walden University Bookstore. You can also
purchase access to Connect Math separately from the publisher if you choose not to purchase
from the Bookstore.
Course Readings List
This course contains no required Walden Library resources; therefore, there is no link provided
for the Course Readings List.
Media
This course contains no assigned media elements.
Rubrics
Rubrics for assessment of student performance are provided in the Course Information area.
Students should consult the rubrics to assist them in evaluating their own performance in the
course. Your Instructor will use the rubrics as guidelines for evaluation and grading.
Course Format
The course consists of 6 weeks, each containing activities and assignments designed to increase
understanding of a given topic. These activities and assignments should be completed in
sequence, as the course content is progressive. See the descriptions below for more information
about these activities and assignments.
Introduction
Each week begins with an Introduction that presents an overview of content to be addressed and
establishes the context for the new knowledge. Included are thought-provoking questions that
will engage you in a topic before viewing any video(s) or approaching the reading assignments.
Learning Objectives
Each week’s learning objectives provide a list of measurable learning goals related to course
content.
Learning Resources
Note: Course content is progressive. You are advised to address the Learning Resources in the
sequence in which they appear.
The Learning Resources provide new knowledge on the topic(s) covered within a week and are
provided via reading assignments and websites. The Learning Resources will inform
Discussions, Assignments, and the Reflection and may be found by clicking on each week’s
Resources link on the course navigation menu. Learning Resources include:

Reading
Reading assignments from the course text are listed under each week’s Learning

Resources. A brief rationale introduces each reading assignment and helps place it into
the context of the weekly topic.
Websites
In an online environment, websites can provide a valuable resource for furthering your
knowledge on a given topic. At times, web resources may be used to complete an
assignment in the course.
Weekly Quizzes
Each week, there is a graded quiz that tests the students’ knowledge of that week’s material.
These quizzes allow students to assess their own progress. The quizzes also help to prepare
students for the midterm and final exams.
Discussion Postings and Responses
The online Discussions provide you with opportunity to share your understanding of the material
as well as personal examples, experiences or insights into the subject under discussion. You also
have opportunity to discover the other students’ understanding of the material and learn from
their examples, experiences, or insights. Finally the Discussion activity provides the opportunity
to interact with other students and your Instructor, perhaps to ask questions, offer perspectives,
exchange ideas, or brainstorm solutions.
The introductory information, as well as the week’s assignment readings, are to be considered
prior to making your initial posting in the Discussion.
You will be directed to:




Post your responses to the questions and your initial thoughts/insights/ideas for your
colleagues to consider.
Read a sampling of your colleagues’ postings.
Respond to at least two of your colleagues’ postings during the week. Note that that you
are expected to participate/post in class Discussions a minimum of 2 different days
each week.
Review your initial posting, and consider your colleagues’ responses and your own
learning.
Grading of Discussions
The requirements of your initial posting, and your choice of responses to your colleagues’
postings, can be found in each week’s Discussion instructions. Points will be deducted for
missing components and can be deducted for spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors. Points
will be deducted if you do not post in the Discussion thread on at least 2 different days each
week. You are encouraged to offer more information in your initial posting than the minimum
required and to respond to more than the required number of your colleagues’ postings. The more
ideas and insights posted and the more interaction generated among colleagues, the more
meaningful and dynamic the learning experience will be for all. Discussions in this course have
been structured to build on the comments of others, and timely participation is important to
ensure that everyone has the necessary input from others to complete their own work. Timeliness
also will allow for the broadest degree of collaboration and will help cultivate a sense of
community.
As previously mentioned, you are expected to participate in class Discussions a minimum of 2
different days each week. Your participation in class is tracked through the Discussion area.
Postings in the Class Café or Contact the Instructor do not count as class participation. Points are
deducted for lack of participation.
Assignments
The Assignments provide an opportunity to apply concepts and strategies to an authentic context.
They require you to pull together information from the Learning Resources, the Discussion area,
your own experiences, and your own research, as necessary, to address an issue from the
perspective of a real situation.
In addition to fully answering the assignment’s questions, each Assignment will be evaluated for
clarity of writing, critical analysis of the issues, proper use of references to support the positions
taken, and adherence to APA standards. Also see this assignment’s rubric in the Course
Information area.
Unless otherwise noted, Assignments must follow APA (American Psychological Association)
guidelines.
Midterm and Final Exams
Week 3 includes a midterm examination. Week 6 includes a final examination. You will have 2.5
hours (150 minutes) to complete these exams.
Course Procedures
Discussions
Discussions in this course are structured to build on the comments of others, and timely
participation is important to ensure that everyone has the necessary input from others to complete
their own work. Timeliness also will allow for the broadest degree of collaboration and will help
cultivate a sense of community. You are expected to participate in class Discussions a minimum
of 2 different days each week.
Your participation in class is tracked through the Discussion area. Postings in the Class Café or
Contact the Instructor do not count as class participation. Points are deducted for lack of
participation.
Preferred Methods for Delivering Assignments



Discussion postings: Students are required to respond each week to the Instructor-posted
Discussion questions. All postings need to be made in each week’s Discussion area of the
course. Please do not send copies of postings to the Instructor or students via e-mail.
Assignments/Projects: Be sure that all documents are saved and submitted as “.doc”
files. You may also submit “.rtf” files, but formatting in these files may be lost, so “.doc”
files are preferred. Directions for naming each Assignment or Project are in each week’s
Assignment or Project area(s).
E-mail: All e-mail correspondence must contain in the subject line STAT2002-XX-Your
Name (XX is the section number) followed by a brief description of the subject. This
subject line convention ensures that your e-mail will be easily identified and responded to
in a timely manner.
Policies on Late Assignments
All assignments are expected to be delivered for review and grading to the designated location
by the specified due day as stated in the Schedule of Assignments. Late submissions will lose
20 percent of the available points for each day late. Assignments over 3 days late will not be
accepted for grading. If you know there will be a delay in your submission, you are required to
alert the Instructor, and everything possible will be done to accommodate you. If you have a
legitimate reason for lateness, you will be extended partial points for your work—so by all
means submit your work, even if late. NO assignments will be accepted after the last day of
class. There are NO exceptions.
Incomplete Grades
Grades of “Incomplete” are given at the discretion of the Instructor but normally are granted only
if students have acceptably completed approximately 80% of the coursework, including
Discussions and assignments, prior to the last day of the class. Students must request a grade of
Incomplete prior to the last day of the course. Such a request should include a list of missing
assignments and a date for submission of missing assignments no later than sixty (60) days from
the last date of the course. Discussion assignments may not be made up after the last date of class
and will be graded in accordance with submission as of the last date of class and Instructor
requirements. Failure to complete the course requirements within the time allowed causes the
grade of I (Incomplete) to default to an F (Fail) or U (Unsatisfactory).
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