Expert answer:Business Decision Making Project Part 3
Solved by verified expert:Purpose of Assignment This assignment provides students with practice in understanding when or why ANOVA and linear regression are identified based on parameters. Students will learn to implement these statistical measures for better business decision-making.Assignment StepsResources: Week 5 Videos; Week 5 Readings; Statistics LabTutorial help on Excel® and Word functions can be found on the Microsoft® Office website. There are also additional tutorials via the web offering support for Office products.Prepare an 11- to 15-slide Microsoft® PowerPoint® presentation for the senior management team based on the business problem or opportunity you described in Weeks 3-4.Include on the slides what you would want the audience to see (include appropriate visual aids/layout) and include in the speaker’s notes section what you would say as you present each slide. If any source material is quoted or paraphrased in the presentation, use APA citations and references.Draw on material you developed in the Week’s 3 and 4 assignments.Include the following in your presentation: Introduction slideAgenda slideDescribe the organization, with a brief descriptionExplain the business problem or opportunityDescribe the hypothesisAnalyze why the business problem is importantIdentify what variable would be best to measure for this problem and explain whyIdentify statistical methods used to analyze dataApply data analysis techniques to this problem (tell which techniques should be used: descriptive statistics, inferential stats, probability) and explain whyApply a possible solution to the problem/opportunity, with rationaleEvaluate how data could be used to measure the implementation of such a solutionConclusionReference slide (if any source material is quoted or paraphrased throughout the presentation)Format your assignment consistent with APA guidelines. Click the Assignment Files tab to submit your assignment.
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Running head: BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 1
Business Decision Making Project Part 1
Chris Holden
QNT/275 Statistics for Decision Making
October 09 2017
Cynthia Roberts
1
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 1
2
Business Decision Making Project Part 1
1.0
Introduction
In this context, I will be major more about a problem within the ice cream industry. Such
a problem has been existing since the inception of this product. Every business firm dealing
with this product has been suffering from same fate. In my case, I will major on Blue Bell
Creameries Company which is among the leading sellers of ice products. Moreover, I will
highlight on some of ways of data collection which should be put in place in order to correct
and verify the problem.
1.1 Blue Bell Creameries
Currently, Blue Bell Creameries Company has been rated among the biggest ice cream
manufactures within U.S. The company began its operations in the year 1907 in Brenham,
Texas. Initially, this company focused on manufacturing of both butter and ice creams. During
mid 1900’s, the company extended its services and operations in order to cover the entire
Texas State. During this expansion period the company ended up abandoning production of
butter products (McCrackan 2005).
More plans were put in place which enabled the company to expand its services
to the Southern States. As per now, Blue Bell Company operates four main stations among 13
States. Its headquarters are positioned at the “Little Creamery” within the city of Brenham,
Texas. Since the year 1919, this company has been under management of the Kruse family.
Regardless of being sold within a limited number of states, since the year 2015 Blue Bell
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 1
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Company has been rated as the fourth highest-selling ice cream brand within U.S (McCrackan
2005).
1.2 The Problem
Based on current studies, the ice cream industry has in operation since late 1800. In
overall, this product is highly liked by both children and women. According research conducted
in the year 2014, ice cream companies were able to make more than 872 million gallons of ice
creams (MacInerney 2007). This implied that, ice cream is among the leading source of income
for U.S. Market demand of this product is currently facing problem of weather changes. In
general, ice cream producers such as Blue Bell are currently facing market problems as a result
of arrival of the winter season.
According to information shared from ice cream retailers, a great fluctuation of ice sales
has been recorded during winter season. This season has been said to last for 2-3 months in
each year. During winter, most customers are unwilling to buy ice creams which has resulted to
a great market loss. Additionally, such loss result to a reduced production which later yields to
loss of jobs (MacInerney 2007). Though Blue Bell Company has invested and diversified in other
products like butter as well as Cheese, Ice cream has been termed to be its leading source of
income.
1.3 Research Variables
Based on its financial data, the amount of ice cream sold on its annual basis is the
dependent variable whereas Months in which it sells its products is the independent variable.
This is based on the fact that; different months have varying weather patterns in form of
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 1
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changes in temperatures. In most cases, high temperatures translate or results to high sales in
terms of ice cream. Temperatures vary from one month to the other (Smith 2006). During low
temperatures clients avoid ice cream products resulting to lower sales for ice cream vendors
among other firms.
1.4 Data Collection
Its financial data has clearly explained on how the company distribute ice creams among
other products in U.S. This implies that we have a huge volume of data collection points. As per
our case here, we will verify the problem at hand by utilizing real world data. This data will
enable the company in implementing the appropriate sampling strategy for the problem at
hand. To gather sales data for the ice cream, it is critical to pay a visit to numerous facilities
which sell Blue Bell ice creams for instance supermarkets among other established ice cream
shops. In getting the real data, we may not need exact values of the company’s sales but we
may choose to go for the overall trends over the given months (Smith 2006). Additionally, the
ice cream problem is a not restricted to some companies alone. The best sampling approach
which will enable the company to save resources is convenience sampling.
Convenience sampling involves paying visits to nearest ice cream shops as well as
supermarkets. Interviews may also be considered as a key strategy in collection of data. The
information to be gathered comprise of the quantity of ice creams sales in each month within
the given year. Capturing information through electronic media by taking pictures may be
preferred too. Current studies have concluded that, more than 6% sample of a large population
will be enough when collecting data based on the ice cream sales. In our case, 5% of various ice
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 1
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cream shops and supermarkets which deal with Blue Bell ice creams will be analyzed and
sampled.
1.5 Reliability and Validity of data
Generally, reliability is defined as the degree at which an assessment tool generates a
stable and consistent results. This will be very useful as per our case. In determining whether
the data is valid and reliable the company will have to use a software in evaluating various
coefficients involved. For reliability, the correlation of numerous months on the gathered data
will be examined to check for significance. Outliers among other issues which may impact the
reliability of data will be eliminated too. In case the data collected proves un reliable even after
outliers are eliminated, it will be necessary to sample more stores and supermarkets and
comparison of the results will be performed.
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REFERENCES
MacInerney, Dorothy McLeod. 2007. Blue Bell Ice Cream. Brenham, Tex.: Blue Bell
Creameries.
McCrackan, Andrew. 2005. Practical Guide To Business Continuity Assurance. Boston: Artech
House.
Smith, Andrew F. 2006. Encyclopedia Of Junk Food And Fast Food. Westport, Conn.:
Greenwood Press.
Running head: BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 2
Business Decision Making Project Part 2
Chris Holden
QNT/275 Statistics for Decision Making
October 16 2017
Cynthia Roberts
1
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 2
2
Business Decision Making Project Part 2
The business issue at Blue Bell Creameries Company is the high turnover of workers on
account of absence of acknowledgment. In previous part, it was resolved that we utilize subjective
information. This technique when chosen enables us to put data into required categories. We
established that the examination variable is acknowledgment and this would comprehend the issue
of the high turnover rate (Business Ethics, 2018).
Identify the types of descriptive statistics that might be best for summarizing the data, if
you were to collect a sample.
“Illustrative insights is the outline of critical parts of an informational index” (Jaggia and
Kelly, 2014). To utilize descriptive statistics, we would utilize frequency distribution. “Recurrence
dispersion of subjective information bunches the information into classes at that point records the
quantity of perceptions that fall into every classification” (Jaggia and Kelly, 2014). On the off
chance that we utilize ordinal data, it will enable us to order and rank the data. The information
will then empower us to decide whether recognition will enable high turnover rate at Blue Bell
Creameries Company (Business Ethics, 2018).
Analyze the types of inferential statistics that might be best for analyzing the data, if you
were to collect a sample.
Inferential statistics involves making determinations of expansive data of a given
population. To break down inferential insights, we utilize relapse investigation. “Relapse
examination is utilized to inspect the connection between at least two factors” (Jaggia and Kelly,
2014). Acknowledgment is the variable, and the relapse examination is the reaction variable. We
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can analyze the relationship more profound in the event that we find distinctive sorts of
acknowledgment (Campbell, 1996). The reaction variable will impact alternate sorts of
acknowledgments. The reaction variable likewise alludes to the dependent variable.
To test the value of relapse, we would utilize the trial of joint criticalness and utilize the informative
factors. The trial of joint criticalness decides if the logical factors impact y. The informative factors
are alternate factors that impact the reaction variable. “It isn’t clear what number of illustrative
factors must be huge to record a joint noteworthiness” (Jaggia and Kelly, 2014). We can check if
distinctive sorts of acknowledgment influence the high turnover rate at Blue Bell Creameries
Company.
Analyze the role probability or trend analysis might play in helping address the business
problem.
Likelihood is conceivable results from taking risks. A pattern investigation is the
examination of information of a timeframe. We can utilize the dummy variable when endeavoring
to break down the parts of likelihood and pattern investigation. “A dummy variable d is
characterized as a variable that goes up against estimations of 1 or 0 and is utilized to depict
subjective factors into two classifications. A spurious variable is otherwise called a marker
variable. An examination of a specific sham variable can be factually huge by utilizing the standard
t-test. The t-test determines if the two means are factually critical. With this, we can bunch our
information into two classifications to depict the distinctive sorts of acknowledgment we should
utilize (Campbell, 1996).
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 2
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Analyze the role that linear regression for trend analysis might play in helping address the
business problem.
There are two sorts of linear regression models that we can use to investigate drift
examination. Basic linear regression utilizes just a single illustrative variable, and different direct
relapse utilizes more than one informative variable which is directly related by the reaction
variable. The numerous linear regression indicates how reaction factors can impact informative
factors. “To build up a direct relapse demonstrate, we need to begin with a deterministic segment
that approximates the relationship we need to model, and after that add an arbitrary term to it,
making the relationship inaccurate. A key presumption basic the straightforward direct relapse
demonstrate is the normal estimation of y lies on a straight line” (Jaggia and Kelly, 2014). The
specimen relapse condition would function admirably for our business issue. “It would utilize the
anticipated estimation of the reaction variable is given a predefined estimation of the informative
variable of x. Since the indicators can’t be completely precise, the distinction between the
watched and the anticipated estimations of y would speak to the remaining”.
Analyze the role that a time series might play in helping address the business problem.
A period arrangement investigation is an arrangement of information that spreads over a
period. Regression is one part of a times arrangement. The more information, the better the relapse
investigation. A perfect regression is the point at which every one of the occasions occur at one
time. The part of this investigation is imperative with the high turnover rate since it enables us to
accumulate the distinctive sorts of acknowledgment to perceive what might resolve the issue. The
two sorts of time arrangement are consistent and discrete (Kourdi, 2011). A persistent arrangement
BUSINESS DECISION MAKING PROJECT PART 2
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is an arrangement in a few territories in which a few factors xt can be watched consistently. The
time file can take every single conceivable incentive in an interim of genuine numbers.
A discrete arrangement is the point at which the arrangement of the conceivable esteems t
is a discrete set and can be seen as a subset of the numbers. The two sorts of discrete arrangement
are levels and streams. “Levels are enrolled promptly while streams aggregate after some time.
The reason for the time arrangement is to evaluate or dispense with a pattern. One kind of model
that can help show this information is the deterministic model. This model did not depend on
likelihood and is controlled by circumstances and end results. It can help the turnover issue by
posting the articles and their occasions, and after that examining them.
Conclusion
The objective to enable Blue Bell Creameries Company to keep up its representatives is to
discover routes for the exploration variable to work and utilize a few types of data to help get it
going. We could figure out what the exploration variable is to utilize inferential measurements to
break down the finishes of the graphic insights. The best strategy to utilize is the relapse
examination since it looks at the connection between the factors. In drift examination, we can
utilize the fake variable and the t test for conceivable results. It incorporates utilizing
straightforward and different direct relapse models also. The time arrangement helps take a gander
at the information accumulated over a specific period to enable Blue Bell Creameries Company to
keep up its representatives and chop the turnover rate down (Kourdi, 2011).
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REFERENCES
Business Ethics. (2016).
Campbell, M. (1996). Introduction to business decision making. Scarborough, Ont.: Nelson
Canada.
Kourdi, J. (2011). Effective decision making. London: Marshall Cavendish Business.
…
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