Expert answer:Probability Project

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MGF2106 (Survey of Mathematics): Probability Project
Purpose: Work individually or as a group to complete various tasks related to probability, to
enhance your understanding and answer the questions. Probability is a powerful tool that can be
used in areas ranging from gambling to genetics.
Format for Dropbox Submission:
1. The submission should be a single document formatted as .docx, .doc, .rtf, or .pdf.
2. The submission should be typed. If there are parts of the assignment that need to be
drawn by hand, they should be done neatly, scanned, and included in the final
submission. Put your name on the document. If you worked in a group, also list the
names of the other students in the group.
Part 1: Gambling
Visit www.flalottery.com and answer the following questions about the Florida Lottery. Clearly
explain how each of the following probabilities is computed.
1) What is the probability of winning the jackpot if you play the Florida Lotto?
2) What is the probability of winning the jackpot if you play Mega Millions?
3) What is the probability of winning the jackpot if you play Powerball?
For each question make sure that you fully explain the reasoning behind your answers and the
concept(s) from probability that are used to answer them.
Part 2: Genetics
In the nineteenth century, the Austrian monk Gregor Mendel noticed while crossbreeding plants
(peas in particular) that often a characteristic of the plants would disappear in the first-generation
offspring but reappear in the second generation. He theorized that the first-generation plants
contained a hidden factor (which we now call a gene) that was somehow transmitted to the
second generation to enable the characteristic to reappear.
As an example, suppose we denote the gene that produces the yellow seed by Y and the gene that
produces the green seed by g. The uppercase Y indicates that yellow is the dominant gene and
the lowercase g indicates that green is recessive. The table below shows the possible theoretical
outcomes that can occur when we cross two first-generation plants.
First Generation Plant
First Generation
Plant
Y
g
Y
YY
Yg
g
gY
gg
Notice from the table that of the 4 possible outcomes, 3 of the plants will be yellow (since 3 have
the dominant Y gene) while 1 of the plants (since only 1 has two recessive genes) will be green.
From this we can say that the theoretical probability of the second-generation plant being green
is ¼ or 0.25.
There is of course a difference between theoretical and experimental. The following table lists
some of the actual results that Mendel obtained in his experiments in crossbreeding peas.
Experimental Results
Characteristics That Were
Crossbred
First-Generation Plants
Tall versus Short
All tall
Smooth versus Wrinkled
Seeds
All smooth seeds
Yellow versus Green Seeds
All yellow seeds
Second-Generation Plants
787 tall
277 short
5,474 smooth
1,850 wrinkled
6,022 yellow
2,001 green
Notice from the results that tall, smooth, and yellow are all dominant genes. Also notice that
based on the experimental results, the probability of a second-generation plant being green is
0.2494. This agrees fairly well with the theoretical probability.
From the tables of possible theoretical outcomes and experimental results, answer the following
questions.
1) Assume that we are crossbreeding genetically tall and short plants. Create a table (just
like the one for yellow and green plants) that shows the possible theoretical outcomes that
can occur when we cross two first-generation plants.
2) What is the theoretical probability that a plant will be short?
3) What is the experimental probability that a plant will be short?
4) How do theoretical and experimental probabilities compare?
5) Assume that we are crossbreeding genetically smooth-seed and wrinkle-seed plants.
Create a table (just like the one for yellow and green plants) that shows the possible
theoretical outcomes that can occur when we cross two first-generation plants.
6) What is the theoretical probability that a plant will have smooth seeds?
7) What is the experimental probability that a plant will have smooth seeds?
8) How do theoretical and experimental probabilities compare?
Part 3: Impact Question
Provide an example, or examples, of how the concepts covered in this assignment could be
applied in life or future career choices other than gambling and genetics. The answer should show
sufficient thought, effort, and research.

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